How the Sports Betting Line is Made by RJ Bell

People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not.”

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team’s most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line. For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game. Reasons for such adjustments include:

How the Opening Line Is Made

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a “preliminary” pointspread on an upcoming game. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10). For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football team such as USC.

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

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“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker’s effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias. If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.” .

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action.

Why the Line Changes

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the betting action, public perception and betting patterns must be taken into account.

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

What Is the Line Trying to Accomplish?

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line “feels right.” This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture. Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process.

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines.

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team’s power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it.

RJ Bell

©Pregame.com 2006

Website: http://www.Pregame.com

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an “adjusted line.”

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action

Dr. Bob’s College Football Best Bet

My math model and situational analysis combine to help me find those games in which public perception strays too far from reality, and I’ve profited from that over the years.

Riley’s teams have a habit of starting the season slowly, but the Beavers tend to get hot in October and stay hot. I’ll start with one of my Best Bets for this weekend’s college football. This makes it possible for me to find point spreads that are significantly different than what they should be, which is called line value.

I’ve used my talent for statistical analysis to come up with mathematical models that have proven to be far more advanced than what the Vegas odds makers are using. I also study performance patterns to find situations in which one team may be more ready to perform at a high level or to perhaps suffer a letdown following a good performance or two. In addition to the favorable team trend, my math model gives Oregon State at 56% chance of covering at -13 points based on the math alone. There is no doubt that Oregon State’s good attack (5.7 yppl against teams that would allow 5.0 yppl to an average team) will be able to score a lot of points against a horrible Washington defense that has allowed 6.5 yppl or more in 8 of their 9 games. The public tends to focus too much on recent performance of a team rather than their long term performance level. The only reason Washington won that game was because they did not commit a single turnover while USC turned the ball over 3 times with 1 interception and 2 lost fumbles. The lack of public understanding of variance is what creates the line value.

The strength of Washington’s team is their offense, which rates at 0.7 yppl better than average and the Huskies do have a 0.4 yppl advantage over a good, but not great Beavers’ defense (5.6 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.9 yppl).

. However, more often than not teams that are playing well above expectations (i.e. The likelihood of covering is enhanced by technical analysis favoring Oregon State and I recommend a play on the Beavers at -15 points or less.

In addition to posting game analysis I also plan on writing about other sports topics, some betting related and some not.

For instance, a mediocre team may win 2 or 3 games in a row in seemingly impressive fashion and the price you have to pay to bet on that team may go up because of it. However, Oregon State has a 1.8 yppl advantage when they have the ball and that Beavers’ attack is improving, as is usually the case with Mike Riley coached teams. I’ve had good success over the years with my predictions and my analysis influences the point spreads around the world, as chronicled by the Wall Street Journal and ESPN. In fact, Oregon State is 40-17 Against The Spread (ATS) from game 5 on, including 4-1 ATS this season.

For analysis on all of this week’s NFL and College Football games visit my site at drbobsports.com.

OREGON STATE (-13) 42 Washington 21

Saturday, November 14 – 3:30 pm Eastern Time.

Washington’s early season 16-13 upset of USC thrust the Huskies into the national limelight and created a situation in which they were overrated.

As it turned out, Washington has proven to be a bad team that has been out-gained 5.5 yards per play to 6.8 yppl this season and the Huskies are so bad that they managed to lose to a mediocre UCLA team last week despite being +4 in turnover margin. covering the spread) in recent games tend to come back down to normal performance levels just when the public sentiment has led to an adjustment in the price to bet on that team. Washington was out-played in that game, averaging just 4.3 yards per play (yppl) while allowing USC, with their backup quarterback, to average 6.6 yppl.

You know that gambling has become more than accepted in America when the greatly respected Huffington Post sets up a blog for a sports handicapper.

I’ve been giving sports gambling advice professionally for 23 years, since my days majoring in statistics at UC Berkeley.

The point spread should be viewed as the price it costs to “buy” a certain team in a game, and that price is heavily influenced by public perception rather than reality. Interceptions are 65% random and fumbles are 90% random in college football, so that upset win over USC was nothing more than random positive variance for Washington which hid the fact that Washington was badly out-played by the Trojans. The “hot” streak usually turns out to be nothing more than random variance

12 Effective Tips to Get Rid of Gambling Addiction

Here are some useful tips regarding lifestyle changes to get rid of a gambling addiction.

‘Problem gambling’, also known as ‘ludo mania’, can destroy the life of the gambler and also of his/her family members. Gambling addiction is referred to as ‘compulsive gambling’ or ‘impulse-control disorder’, where the behavior of the gambler is similar to that of a person who has substance addiction.

When an individual realizes that gambling is destroying his family and social life, he thinks of quitting, but in just a few hours or within a couple of days, he is again found in a gaming zone or casino. To experience the same excitement, he needs larger wagers or more frequent gambling.. He lies to his family and friends, borrows money, and loses control over his mind and behavior. Researchers have noticed increased rates of mental health disorders in gamblers with severe ludo mania. Despite being aware of the serious negative consequences, or despite having a strong desire to quit, he cannot stop himself from gambling. Study results show that a gambler who has not been treated for compulsive gambling during his desperation phase is likely to commit suicide. When a gambler with severe ludo mania meets certain criteria, the condition is diagnosed as ‘clinical pathological gambling’. There are chances that he has other psychiatric problems at the same time; for example, substance use disorder, mood and anxiety disorder, personality disorder, etc. Analysis of casino customer data may help identify problem gamblers, but casino owners do not share this data for fear of losing their most lucrative customers (may be 25 – 50%). Addiction to gambling at a young age increases the risk of suicide. As he spends more gambling, he requires more money to recover his losses. But studies show that suicide attempts are usually made by older people with problem gambling. He may lose his job and may commit crimes to get money for gambling

2 brothers sentenced in California for running international sports betting ring

They also were fined $50,000.

The two pleaded guilty to racketeering.

. All 18 have now pleaded guilty.

Authorities say the company took millions of dollars in bets from customers throughout California, strong-armed debtors and laundered proceeds.

Nearly $12 million in assets were seized.

Prosecutors say the brothers ran an Internet and telephone gambling enterprise called “Macho Sports” for more than a decade from a headquarters in Lima, Peru.

SAN DIEGO –  Two brothers who ran an international sports betting ring have been sentenced in California to federal prison.

A judge in San Diego sentenced Jan Portocarrero to 18 months on Friday. Erik Portocarrero was given 22 months.

An FBI investigation began in 2011 and led to 18 arrests in Los Angeles, San Diego and Norway, where Erik Portocarrero lived at the time

Sports.com

It didn’t make sense to her why anyone would offer praise when she wasn’t playing well.

Lady Vols guards Carter, Cooper to miss 2016-17 season

August 3, 2016

KNOXVILLE, Tenn. (AP) Tennessee’s backcourt sustained two major losses, with Andraya Carter forgoing her final season of eligibility and Te’a Cooper out the entire season with a knee injury.

WNBA’s Olympic break allows White to focus on Vandy

July 29, 2016

NASHVILLE, Tenn. (AP) Tennessee coach Holly Warlick remains upbeat amid an extraordinarily difficult year.

Montana’s Shannon Schweyen names Mike Petrino as assistant

August 17, 2016

MISSOULA, Mont. (AP) Stephanie White has the perfect calling card as she hits the recruiting trails during the WNBA’s Olympic break working on her other job as coach of the Vanderbilt Commodores.

3 black women’s basketball players sue Missouri college

July 28, 2016

KANSAS CITY, Mo.

Lady Vols’ Warlick focusing on positive amid difficult year

August 19, 2016

KNOXVILLE, Tenn. (AP) Montana women’s basketball coach Shannon Schweyen has named Mike Petrino as an assistant.

Lady Vols’ DeShields has regained her health, confidence

August 15, 2016

KNOXVILLE, Tenn. (AP) Three black women’s basketball players allege in a lawsuit that a small southwest Missouri college treated them differently than white students before expelling them without justification.

Montana women’s basketball coach Robin Selvig retires

July 27, 2016

MISSOULA, Mont. (AP) Tennessee guard Diamond DeShields couldn’t understand it last season when fans would let her know how much they appreciated her. (AP) The NCAA has donated ,000 to the Pat Summitt Foundation in memory of the late Tennessee coach.

Loyola hires Kate Achter as new women’s basketball coach

July 19, 2016

CHICAGO (AP) Loyola has hired Kate Achter as its women’s basketball coach.

. (AP) Montana women’s basketball coach Robin Selvig announced his retirement Wednesday after 38 years at the school.

Big 12, SEC expand Women’s Basketball Challenge to 10 games

July 25, 2016

The Women’s Basketball Challenge pitting teams from the Southeastern Conference against the Big 12 is expanding to 10 games this season.

NCAA gives ,000 in honor of Summitt to fight Alzheimer’s

July 20, 2016

KNOXVILLE, Tenn

Cybergambling returns — and this time it’s legal

“That’s where I see the huge potential in online gambling, and I reckon the U.S. U.K. Not just poker.”

And New Jersey isn’t alone; eight other states have bills in the works that will allow Internet gambling as well. To put that into further context, Americans accounted for nearly 10 percent of the entire $33 billion worldwide online gaming market,” Freeman said.

. They play against the house at Virgin Casino, and they can finance their wagers with debit cards, credit cards, or in person.

What happens online, stays online

Six other firms, including popular companies like WSOP.com and Ultimate Poker and other casinos like Caesars and the Golden Nugget, participated in the “soft play” launch of online gambling in New Jersey in November, the state’s Department of Gaming Enforcement Director Dave Rebuck said during a recent conference call.

Many Americans simply ignored the ban, he noted, as the country did during Prohibition in the ’20s.

“It’ll be interesting to see how this plays out,” said Laurence DeGaris, associate professor of marketing at the University of Indianapolis and an expert in Internet culture.

“Prohibition simply does not work,” Geoff Freeman told a House panel on Dec. Virgin could be holding a full house, but it could also fail before the flop.

Globally, the business is even more lucrative. 10. market could be worth as much as $9 billion in the coming years as other states, including California, legalize online wagering.

“Slots and roulette are very visceral games, lots of bells and whistles. Chris Christie validated the vice in the waning weeks of 2013, saying he hoped to rake in $1 billion in casino revenues this year, of which the state will collect a 17 percent tax.

“Those from other states can play, but they cannot wager,” Fenton said. Others predict the overall U.S. In online casino gambling, it’s about the game more than the bet.”

“In sports gambling, it’s about the bet,” DeGaris said. — notably sports betting.

Congress banned online gambling in 2006. But new laws across the nation are rolling the rules back — and lawmakers think they’re holding a royal flush.

Players must be at least 21 years old, and either reside in New Jersey or be in the state when they place their bets. If your phone is off, or if you’re too near state borders, you may not be allowed to play.

Legalizing gambling across the U.S.

‘Last year, before a single state authorized legal online gaming, Americans spent nearly $3 billion.’

Prohibition failed – again

Last month, the president and CEO of the American Gaming Association testified before Congress and urged legislators to repeal their 7-year-old ban on Internet gambling.

Mega-entrepreneur Richard Branson’s Virgin Group is the latest entry in online gambling, teaming with the Tropicana Resort in Atlantic City and online game maker Gamesys to bring online poker, blackjack and slots to New Jersey this week. “The federal government has tried the prohibition approach – specifically the Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act of 2006 and the Wire Act – and through multiple Justice Department crackdowns on offshore operators as well.”

“Last year, before a single state authorized legal online gaming, Americans spent nearly $3 billion on illegal, unregulated offshore gaming sites. Gov. will generate – in addition to tax revenue from the proceeds at casinos – approximately 22,000 new online gambling-related jobs, Freeman testified.

Not everyone agrees with the odds. “Blackjack and poker have a very human element that’s lost online. will catch up to the rest of the world and allow it at some point.”

To prevent unauthorized access, Virgin Casino physically locates gamers’ cellphones periodically. H2 said the industry was worth $33 billion in 2013, with $4.5 billion coming from mobile gambling on iPads, iPhones and smartphones.

“There will be many games to play online in New Jersey,” Fenton told FoxNews.com. “If we are unable to determine that you are in New Jersey, you will be unable to play on Virgin Casino,” the site notes. market research firm H2 Gambling Capital, which focuses on the gaming industry, predicted about $300 million for New Jersey’s online casinos — or about $45 million in tax revenue, according to the New York Times. That doesn’t translate online,” DeGaris told FoxNews.com. Nevada and Delaware also began offering some online gambling last year, but New Jersey is the first state to “fully” legalize it, said Lee Fenton, the chief operating officer of Gamesys.

Freeman said the Department of Justice has relaxed its views toward online gambling since 2011, and this could open up even more opportunities in the U.S. “Blackjack, slots. “The technology is rolling out this week.”

- Geoff Freeman, president and CEO of the American Gaming Association

But analysts are mostly rolling with Christie and the casinos